The cooling trend that started gently in August has now developed more momentum. Supply is still growing faster than it did last year while demand continues to show a slow weakening trend. Things are getting better for buyers and worse for sellers.
It remains a seller's market in the inner West Valley and in most areas where properties can be easily found for the median sales price of $213,000 or less. Elsewhere we are dropping towards a balanced market and one or two areas have retreated to a level where buyers have a small advantage.
The Cromford Market Index moved from around the 144 mark at the beginning of October to around the 134 mark at the beginning of November. This has now become a significant enough change for most people to feel a difference. More sellers are becoming frustrated, especially those in those with the highest growth in active listings and relatively weak demand. Far North Scottsdale comes to mind, but there are several other examples.
Meanwhile in areas like El Mirage, Glendale and Avondale, sellers remain firmly in control.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for November 1, 2015 relative to November 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
Active Listings (excluding UCB): 21,439 versus 24,846 last year - down 13.7% - but up 7.1% from 20,024 last month
Active Listings (including UCB): 24,644 versus 27,561 last year - down 10.6% - but up 6.1% compared with 23,238 last month
Pending Listings: 5,821 versus 5,293 last year - up 10.06% - but up 1.9% from 5,789 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 9,026 versus 8,008 last year - up 12.7% - and up very slightly from 9,003 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,214 versus 6,271 last year - down 0.9% - and down 12.7% from 7,117 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $134.17 versus $127.81 last year - up 4.2% - and up 0.7% from $133.19 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $213,000 versus $192,438 last year - up 10.7% - and up 0.9% from $211,000 last month
The above numbers demonstrate a weakness in closed sales but a strength in under contract listings.
This is evidence that the TRID procedures are extending escrow durations. Listings under contract counts are higher and closed sales count are lower than we would have expected without TRID. The effect is not huge, but it appears that several hundred listings carried over into November instead of being closed at the end of October.
Sales were down 1% from October last year, the weakest year over year comparison for any ANY month since January.
The price trends continue to show positive appreciation. The monthly median sales price is being artificially raised by the absence of supply at the low end, demonstrating one of the weaknesses of the median sales price as a measure.
When we examine the market by price, it becomes clear that the top and bottom end of the price ranges are selling less and the middle is selling more, compared with last year at this time. The bottom is selling less due to low supply while the top end is selling less due to lower demand. The mid-range market has plenty of both. Here is the percentage change in single family sales in the high end ranges during October 2015 versus October 2014:
Over $3 million - sales flat (only 5 units)
$2 million to $3 million - sales down 72%
$1.5 million to $2 million - sales down 43%
$1 million to $1.5 million - sales down 2%
$800,000 to $1 million - sales up 13%
At the bottom end:
Under $25,000 - down 100%
$25,000 to $50,000 - down 35%
$50,000 to $75,000 - down 38%
$75,000 to $100,000 - down 50%
$100,000 to $125,000 - down 47%
$125,000 to $150,000 - down 24%
$150,000 to $175,000 - up 7%
$175,000 to $200,000 - down 2%
Everything else is looking good:
$200,000 to $225,000 - up 16%
$225,000 to $250,000 - up 8%
$250,000 to $275,000 - up 10%
$275,000 to $300,000 - up 22%
$300,000 to $350,000 - up 16%
$350,000 to $400,000 - up 28%
$400,000 to $500,000 - up 13%
$500,000 to $600,000 - up 36%
$600,000 to $800,000 - up 32%